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Typically, the NFL's Head Coach of the Year award follows a simple pattern. It often acts as a kind of apology. We regret we underestimated your squad in our preseason projections.

In theory, it's a clear-cut trajectory: the coach who oversaw the largest improvement receives the award. However, it sparks an annual debate about expectations and whether we're actually rewarding superior coaching or merely the biggest upset.

But this year's field is fundamentally different. The group of contenders is exceptionally deep. It has been the season of resurgences. The league has been chaotic, with recent division winners fading and recent underperformers ascending together. Under an typical year, a coach guiding the his team to the summit of the AFC would make him the clear favorite. Yet in such a wild and thrilling season, he's competing with five other exceptional coaches.

Below is how the ideal vote ought to shake out.

5) Ben Johnson, Chicago Bears, 11-5

Coach of the Year selectors love signal-callers. They always have. Sean McVay in 2017. Another in 2020. A third in 2022. Should you fix a franchise QB, you're halfway to winning the award.

The Bears' head coach not only corrected Caleb Williams; he's unleashed him. Given a proper ecosystem, the QB has been afforded the chance to demonstrate his special talent. Since Week 9, the Bears rank number four in offensive Expected Points Added per play. That's not a hot streak – it's sustained dominance. With his guidance, the quarterback has become increasingly decisive, less reckless, and has eagerly submitted to the scheme instead of improvising. It is an attack constructed solely in the coach's vision: a physical ground attack, a steady dose of play-action passes and a innovative passing attack that springs wide receiver targets everywhere. Williams has taken advantage. And when clear throws haven't been there, he's been capable to conjure magic out of broken plays.

The coach came to the Bears with a clear offensive vision. Virtually every gamble – overhauling the trenches, utilizing the pass-catchers, turning the QB into a rhythm passer – has succeeded. This is uncommon for a rookie skipper. And it's even more uncommon yet for a coach who entered the building with the immense hype Johnson did. For consecutive straight offseasons, he was the top name on the head coaching market. However when it comes to selecting a head coach, there are zero sure things. Remarkably, Johnson has met the hype – and even exceeded them. He's proven not just to be a offensive wizard but the kind of culture builder that can breathe fresh energy into an franchise.

During a typical year, he would be the runaway choice. Yet this is not a typical year!

The area where his case runs slightly into trouble is on defense. The Bears currently rank 25th in defensive success rate. They are surviving on turnovers, and turnovers are notoriously fickle. Defensive minds can stress creating turnovers, but nobody can guarantee it. He is on the list because the offense is sustainable. He's ranked lower because luck is doing too much of the defense's work. With a couple breaks of the ball, the Bears would be several victories behind. It's been an remarkable turnaround, and the foundation is in place for sustained success. But Johnson comes up just short in this ranking.

4) Liam Coen, Jacksonville Jaguars, 12-4

Coen is in a similar spot to Johnson. He's another first-time head coach who has orchestrated a dramatic turnaround. Over the crucial final weeks of the year, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the finest overall ball of his professional life. And he's also overseen the remaking of a defense that now sits at fifth in the league in Expected Points Added per play.

What's more impressively, he has mastered the intangibles aspects, which wasn't a certainty following his initial public introduction and some of his preseason decisions.

Coen took over the Jaguars with an uncommonly inexperienced staff. In contrast to Johnson, who packed their staff with the perfect staff cocktail of youth and veteran savvy, Coen bet on first-timers. Starting with the head coach on down to assistants to assistant coaches, the Jags are filled with rookies. That type of setup is exciting in theory, but frequently collapses in practice – with other teams are a cautionary tale – because everybody is learning a their job in real-time. Yet Coen has pulled everyone and all elements into sync.

After an initial strong beginning, there was a chance that the campaign would veer off the track. A mid-year collapse had the team wobbling once more. That's usually when leaders overcorrect. Coen didn't. Rather, he simplified the approach. The offense stopped chasing home-run answers and started seeking reliable ones. Coen recentered the offense around his playmakers and the running game, and asked his QB to use his mobility more.

The outcomes are evident. The Jags have won multiple games consecutively and will be the conference's number three seed. Coen gets the slightest deduction in the standings because he inherited a talented team, but he has demonstrated he can get the most out of that talent.

3) Mike Macdonald, His Team, Their Record

Every Strong of the Year narrative has a pivotal decision. For Mike Macdonald, it was his quarterback choice.

Parting ways from a incumbent, bringing in a different quarterback and pairing him with an new offensive coordinator could have ended the campaign in October. Instead, it defined it. Through the middle point of the year, the new QB was an Most Valuable Player contender. He has regressed since that time, slipping to a lower rank in EPA per pass attempt over the latter part of the season, putting him only one spot ahead of other QBs.

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