Ten years following the UK embarked on a hasty public vote that split the country and triggered disorder, a advisory is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and voters drifted into Brexit and the same might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking disturbances for which no one is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two respected journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Not Ready
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a possibly fraught and seismic public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can arise suddenly and can gather momentum rapidly," the commentator remarked. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our region remains very unstable."
New Title Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have studied the political, economic and societal reasons for any constitutional change in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the matter with a roadshow of lectures that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns all parties, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We must avoid a referendum on a binary, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extraordinarily split population where those defeated are resistant to losing and the those successful don't know quite what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would support.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say that moment is looming, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the possibility, leaving it unclear when or if there will be a referendum.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has masked the lack of serious debate, stated the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the concept but the actual thinking which could extend past that to achieve it is mostly absent. A lot has taken place in universities but hardly any elected officials or campaigners want to engage with the basics. To illustrate, what sort of state would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, none of the commentators supports unification or the existing arrangement. They composes two articles that seek impartiality in detailing the rationale for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, assembling financial and social data, previous instances and constitutional models.
Arguments encompass identity markers, duties, medical care, pensions, public liabilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to enlighten and stimulate conversation.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," stated O’Toole. "Dialogue indicates an acceptance of the notion that there might be reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens say they support unity but reject greater financial contributions or introducing a alternative symbol to reflect pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland should establish what the proposal from nationalist groups is aside from just stating: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we love you'," said O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
The journalist thinks a national vote in his lifetime is likely and that it could happen suddenly. "It is possible just a mad or a poor or a incompetent official who declares: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, justified arguments, he commented. "One side will prevail in this matter and the other side will eventually be defeated but each side has got valuable insights to learn from the other's positions."
Appeal for Broader Dialogue
Westminster needed to join the discussion, said O’Toole. "This involves the United Kingdom. It's a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish matter."
